Time Well Spent

… by studying why we’ve been wrong, we can be more right.

Russell Napier

Featured Image Credit: Photo by Steve Buissinne from Pixabay

I’ve been called a cynic, which I’ve long held rather as healthy scepticism. And I’ve railed over uncertainty now and then, mostly in academics although, in fairness, never absolutely. But, all irony aside, I now defer with appreciative respect to Russell Napier, whose typically gripping understatement offers a typically brilliant case not simply for uncertainty but for its necessity.

In this video interview with the Parish Church of St. Cuthbert, Edinburgh City Centre, Napier paints a humble image of The Library of Mistakes, a repository of “the recorded uncertainty of how things work in the real world” (to quote his Keeper’s Blog on the Library website).

Napier initially co-founded the Library to register mistakes from business and finance although he mentions that the Library’s embrace has since widened to reflect more equitable representation… true enough: if there was ever a sector of sustainable growth…

On the other hand, if the Library may ever truly succeed, you expect it will need to put itself out of business – gladly, I suppose. But, as I say, all irony aside.

He devotes a good portion of his commentary here to sound money, fraudulent banking, and the consequences of ruinous ill discipline. He’s droll, simple, clear, and engrossing.

It’s not all negative, either: whether or not the flipside to every mistake is great success or mere intention – either way, hey… there’s a flipside.

And that, I suppose, is the take-away just now, for me anyway… with modest whimsy, Napier and the Library sound a call of respect for uncertainty and the untidiness that efficiency and statistics and computation are not only unwilling to consider but unable to predict or control. If the reason to embrace uncertainty is because outcomes can’t be guaranteed, what is that if not attributable to people… to our deficiency, our equivocation, our inexactitude? In a culture where metrics are religion and science invincible, truth is what can be measured, and qualitative uncertainty has been a nobly humoured side of fries.

Napier speaks here for about half an hour, ahead of a short and equally informative Q&A, and caps his remarks with a reminder that any opinion one has will utterly depend on the perspective one takes in order to have it.

As ever with Russell Napier, at least for me, the time spent feels most definitely worthwhile and insufficiently brief.

Seriously, watch this interview.

From Palisades Gold Radio – Silver Analyst Ted Butler: “Crushing the Silver Short Positions”

As a follow-up to the previous post… to help anybody who may be wondering what on earth it means to “short” a stock.

I opened that post saying that you must have heard about the Gamestop market event, during which r/wallstreetbets, a Reddit subgroup, marshalled millions of its members into buying Gamestop shares as a way to attack big Wall Street hedge funds that were shorting the stock.

Of course, you may have heard but not had a clue or a care as to what “shorting a stock” even means.

Listen here to an interview by Palisades Gold Radio with Ted Butler, a highly experienced and long-time market analyst, who offers a cogent, concise explanation not only about “shorting” but about impressing upon listeners the significance of shorting to a bigger picture as well as why the way shorting takes place these days is concerning.

Also read here and here two other brief, informative articles by Butler for more of his straightforward insight about silver shorting. [Edited February 13, 2021: also be careful to avoid confusing “silver shorting” with “silver shortage.”]

If you think finance, and the economy, and the stock market are a world away from your day-to-day, that is entirely understandable, yet may I humbly suggest that you most of all may appreciate what Ted Butler has to offer.